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  • Player ratings question

    I'll admit up front that I am in the group of baseball fans that loves the game, played a lot when I was younger, and now plays fantasy baseball for the fun and competition of it. However, I am not one that memorizes every detail, studies tendencies, ballpark effects, etc. I subscribe to BBHQ because I want to get advice and input from others that spend a whole lot more time than I do on the details. Therefore, when I look at the daily callups and the organizational reports, I am looking for information that the experts can provide for someone like me. In managing my team, I only care about picking up players with a reasonable chance to help me---especially in my keeper league. So, if I see a minor league player rated as a 9, I start to get excited. Then, I see the probability of reaching potential and it confuses me. I understand the concept. But, from a practical standpoint, do I really need to know that he has a 30%, 50%, 70%, or 90% chance of reaching his potential? I am only interested in one thing---is he likely to help me? Does a 30% chance of being an elite player (9D, I think) offer me anything or would it be better to consider him a 8A (solid regular with a 90% chance. What is the difference between a 30% chance of being elite vs a 90% chance of being a solid regular(8A). Or, will that 9D translate to a 7A or 6A if he doesn't reach his potential? Most ratings carry a 9C, 8C, 7C, etc. and I understand the dilemma. But, I want a higher probability of knowing what I'm getting and rejoice when it is exceeded. So, I guess I'm looking for more A's and B's next to the potential ratings even if it means dropping the potential number down a notch. Then, the 9's will really become more important to me and I'd jump for joy at a 10.

  • #2
    I always go for the number first, then "discount" it by the letter grade. I figue I'd rather have a 10 guy than an 7, unless there's a huge discrepancy in their letter-grades. I might take a 7A over a 10E if I were playing for right now, maybe not if I was building a farm team. Good question, though.
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    'Put Marvin Miller in the Hall of Fame!'

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    • #3
      Even if a guy is an A, he's still risky during the first year or two that he adjusts to major league pitching. One bad month and there he goes back to the minors until September.

      I know, that doesn't really address your question.
      "If you never guess wrong, you're not guessing about hard enough things." -- Jordan Ellenberg

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