concerned about $ values

[cardboardbox]

I've never participated in an auction before and was hoping to use the custom valuator to guide me through it. But it seems that some people have found some bugs in it. Will I be able to rely on the $ values I get from the custom valuator? Or should I go to rototimes and get their $ value projections? My auction is a week away.

[hqforums]

We're working on fixing the bugs as quickly as we can.

Ron

[cardboardbox]

thanks

[cardboardbox]

bumping this to find out what the status of the bug fixes were...

I created $ values for my league using HQ and RotoTimes and tried to find three players with similar projections:

Nomar:
HQ: .312 avg 100 runs 97 rbi 26 hr 12 sb $31
RT: .310 avg 108 runs 110 rbi 26 hr 13 sb $27.10

Jimmy Rollins:
HQ: .261 avg 85 runs 60 rbi 10 hr 22 sb $20
RT: .269 avg 91 runs 60 rbi 10 hr 25 sb $10.39

Adam Everett:
HQ: .245 avg 64 runs 45 rbi 6 hr 13 sb $11
RT: .257 avg 54 runs 53 rbi 7 hr 10 sb -$1.86

I'm not debating the projected stats but I am confused about how the $ values are so different. The projections from HQ and RT are similar enough that the $ values should be very close.

This was a 14 team mixed $260 cap 14 hitter 9 pitcher league 190/70 split.

[LongDuckDong]

Cardboard -

You cannot value stats in a vacuum. The player is values on his stats as a percentage of the whole draftable player pool. If source one and source 2 show identical stats for a player, but source one projects more HR, SB, RBI, etc for the entire pool than source 2, then that player will be more valuable in source 2 than source one.

Heres a easy example. Suppose you're just picking HR against your buddy, you each have $100 to spend on two players.

Player A hits 10 HR
B hits 5
C hits 3
D hits 2

In this easy example, theres 20 HR hit in total, so each HR is worth $5. So Player A is worth half the dollars to spend, or $50. Theres an adjustment that has to be made for the worst player in the pool but for right now, lets keep it really easy.

Example 2.
Player A hits 10 HR
B hits 25
C hits 8
D hits 7

Now theres 50 HR hit, so player A's HR are worth 10/50 of the dollars, or $20.

The point is, his stats are the same but the quality of the pool affects his value.

I HIGHLY, HIGHLY recommend developing some understanding of valuation systems before going into an auction - but if not thats at least an explanation of why different sources could have the same dollar values...

[Steve S]

As I understand Cardboard's post, he used the same pool for both sets of $ values.

[cardboardbox]

Yes I understand your point but it seems that 95% or more of the projections from HQ and RT are very close just like those three examples I gave. The main difference I see is that RT has 476 hitters in their list and HQ has 355. That definately could make a difference not because any of the projections were different but because the pool of HR, RBI, R, and SB was so much larger. However, RT goes into negative $ value from the 207th hitter on down. I take that to mean that those players wouldn't even earn a buck in my league.

One thing is fairly certain, Adam Everett would definately not be a starter in my league, much less be worth $11.

[LongDuckDong]

My apologies if it didn't help - i just wanted you to understand why the same stats could have different values in different pools.

As for the number of players ranked, it shouldnt matter since only #of players per team * # of teams should have positive value...

Cant explain an $11 Everett.

I'd buy a book on this valuation stuff and go from there so you're not held up by this stuff. I ignore the values given altogether...

[cardboardbox]

Originally posted by LongDuckDong
My apologies if it didn't help - i just wanted you to understand why the same stats could have different values in different pools.

As for the number of players ranked, it shouldnt matter since only #of players per team * # of teams should have positive value...

Cant explain an $11 Everett.

I'd buy a book on this valuation stuff and go from there so you're not held up by this stuff. I ignore the values given altogether...

Exactly what I thought!! I expected only 196 hitters to have positive value. RT actually has 197 at $1 or higher and the rest are mostly negative (a handful between 0 and .99). There are exactly 126 pitchers with value >= $1.

I guess this just means that there are still bugs to work out of the custom valuator. I hope it gets fixed soon because my auction is this weekend.

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to be annoying, just trying to understand things.

[ackermaj]

I have a Custom Valuator question as well.

It appears to me that the dollar values for closers are very low. My league is: 5x5, mixed, 12 teams, 170/90. The dollar values for all closers I looked at are exactly half of what the 5x5 dollar values are on the BaseballHQ player projections. I understand that the two sources use different valuation models, and that there is a significant difference in mixed-league vs. one-league value, but this just doesn't seem right.

Maybe it is all being worked out, but anyone else think the same thing?

[Steve S]

That there are twice as many closers should sevrlely suppress their value as compared to a single league. That it would cut it in half, I don't know.

The values for my 14 team Mixed 5x5 (165/95 split) look about right for closers. Gagne is at $26, Wagner at $20 and Smoltz at $17. The values for closers are about 25% lower in 5x5 vs 4x4 and for a Mixed league with 12 teams their are about 23 closers projected to earn 25 saves or more.

[ackermaj]

Closer value in 5x5 mixed

Thanks for the replies, Steve and oechsli.

I was just very surprised to see, say, Trevor Hoffman at only $7, or Percival at $8. Even the top performer, Gagne, is only $20.

If they are correct, than it leads me to a different question:

If there is so much value available, should I significantly lower my budgeted amount for saves? (Knowing that there are so many closers projected for 25 of them? Does anyone know if this is more than in years past?) If the projected value for these relievers is so low, then it would stand to reason that I'd get better return on my auction investment if I spent it elsewhere, no?

Last season, the top closers went for $30 (only Smoltz and Gagne), but the general range for the rest of the pack was between $10 - $15.

----I actually did a little quick research. Last season, BBHQ had 21 players projected for 25 saves or more. In actual baseball, 18 players had 25 saves or more in 2003.----

[Neil@HQ]

valuations

Guys, I hope you don't mind me butting in here. But I would just spend the $39 and buy RotoLab as it will calculate the custom values for you based on league size and paramenters. Plus, if you choose to use it during your draft (very adviseable) it will recaluclate the remaining player valuations in real time. That kind of pre-draft and in-draft intelligence is priceless. Just my 2 cents.

[cardboardbox]

Re: valuations

Originally posted by Neil@HQ
Guys, I hope you don't mind me butting in here. But I would just spend the $39 and buy RotoLab as it will calculate the custom values for you based on league size and paramenters. Plus, if you choose to use it during your draft (very adviseable) it will recaluclate the remaining player valuations in real time. That kind of pre-draft and in-draft intelligence is priceless. Just my 2 cents.

are you saying the custom valuator here won't calculate custom values?