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  • Runs Created Per Game

    I posted this question in the Think Tank in response to BPI Screens, http://baseballhq.com/members/forums...5&postcount=36

    Here is probably the best place for this question so i moved my question to this post.

    I used Bobby Abreu's latest projections.

    150/506, 95 singles, 36 doubles, 1 triple, 18 hr's, 105 bb's, 25 sb, 6 cs = 7.2 RCG

    I was just checking to make sure i had the correct formulas

    Code:
    TB      = (hr*4)+(3b*3)+(2b*2)+(h-hr-3b-2b)
            = 72+3+72+(150-18-1-36)= 242 total bases
    
    RC      = (H + BB - CS) * ( TB + (.52 * SB) + (.26 * BB)) / (AB + BB)
            = (150+105-6)*(242+(.52*25)+(.26^105))/(506+105)
            = (249)*(242+13+27.3)/611
            = 249*(282.3/611)
            = 115.045335 runs created
    
    RCG     = (RC/((AB - H + CS)/25.5))
            = (115.045335/((506-150+6)/25.5)
            = (115.045335/(362/25.5)
            = (115.045335/14.196078
            = 8.1 Runs Created / Game
    What am I doing wrong?

    Thanks and sorry for the long hand thought process, it will help me see where I went wrong.

  • #2
    Just eyeballing it, I think you're doing it right. I'll ask and see what I can find out...

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    • #3
      Thanks Ray

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      • #4
        Originally posted by MikeHevener View Post
        What am I doing wrong?

        Thanks and sorry for the long hand thought process, it will help me see where I went wrong.
        We don't use that RC/g formula. The Forecaster has the correct formulas:
        Code:
        Swing Speed (SS) = ((1B x .5) + (2B x .8) + (3B x 1.1) + (HR x 1.2)) / (AB - K)
        
        RC/g = (SS x 37.96) + (ct% x 10.38) + (bb% x 14.81) - 13.04
        
        RC = RC/g x ((AB - H) / 25.2)
        I like the formula for Games = ((AB - H) / 25.2) much better as it does not rely on CS. Yet BaseballHQ still uses this for games, I think: ((AB - H + CS)/25.5))

        -Neil

        Edit: Correction. BaseballHQ started using: Games = ((AB - H) / 25.2) this past winter. So, the HQ numbers should be right on target.
        Last edited by Neil@HQ; 03-08-2007, 10:18 AM. Reason: Correction to Games (G) calc used on BHQ

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        • #5
          Thanks Neil

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          • #6
            Adding my thanks too. Just want to let you know someone needs to update the BBHQ glossary if this change was made a few years ago (which I think you noted in your Think Tank reply).

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            • #7
              Originally posted by thfenn View Post
              Adding my thanks too. Just want to let you know someone needs to update the BBHQ glossary if this change was made a few years ago (which I think you noted in your Think Tank reply).
              Thanks. I can't update the glossary myself but I made sure the Wikipedia had updated info on Runs Created:
              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created

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