Which are the leading indicators?

[JVR]

I came across this item in one of your recent articles:


"The definition of batting eye is very simple: walks divided by strikeouts. The higher the value, the better the chances of hitting .300. There's a nice chart in the Baseball Forecaster that shows this. For example, around 60% of all players with an eye over 1.50 will hit .300. If you're a good contact hitter like Eckstein, hitting grounders and line drives, you've got a decent chance to hit .300. But batting eye can't tell you if that's a soft .300 hitter or not.

(...)

The lesson is to be careful not to put too much stock into batting eye. It is what it is -- a leading indicator of the chances of hitting for average. As veteran HQ subscribers know, though, it's just one item in the analysis toolbox."


Ergo, if one is not a veteran HQ subscriber, how does one determine which are the most reliable indicators for both hitting and pitching?

Several of the indicators used here are not universally utilised and I suspect, some have originated from this site (I haven't had the opportunity to research this).

Which indicators are the most reliable? Are there any that have a higher predictive value than say, the batting eye example where predictive value is set at 60% ?

I can read forever about what the acronyms mean or purport to mean, but not all of the glossary's listed tools will have a high level of reliability.

In essence,which are the proven indicators -- the must-haves, if you will -- to help evaluate and help predict future performance with as much accuracy as possible?

And just curious -- which indicator has proven to be the most reliable and proven of all of them?

Sorry about the long post but, this has been gnawing at me since day 1. Thx.

[RAY@HQ]

JVR,

A fair question, but one without an easy answer. There's no "silver bullet" indicator for either hitters or pitchers. The idea is to use the full arsenal at our disposal to paint a clear picture. And we're regularly adding to/tweaking our arsenal, so the "silver bullet" is a moving target as well.

As far as which indicators are "best", a lot depends on what you're trying to do: for instance, are you evaluating guys in March for draft-worthiness, or are you trying to find some guys in July who figure to have better 2nd halves?

With all of those caveats, here are some of the "classic" indicators that we lean on pretty hard:

Hitters:
PX
xBA
Eye
CT%

Pitchers:
Ctl
Dom
Cmd
HR/9 or HR/FB
H%
S%

Additionally, for both hitters and pitchers we're still absorbing the impact of G/L/F data. Lots of good info to be gleaned from those numbers too.

[JVR]

Originally posted by RAY@HQ

With all of those caveats, here are some of the "classic" indicators that we lean on pretty hard:

Hitters:
PX
xBA
Eye
CT%

Pitchers:
Ctl
Dom
Cmd
HR/9 or HR/FB
H%
S%

Thx RAY -- I now have a place to start. Are these in order of reliability, from most to least?

May I indulge with a few more questions (I'm really sorry if some of this was covered already -- if you tell me there are threads or sources on this site already covering the questions in this post, I will gladly look them up).



Are there any indicators that have proven to be over 80% reliable or would this be an unrealistic expectation?

In general, what would be a desirable degree of reliability for any indicator to be considered as a useful tool?

How many years of data do we have to support those indicators that have proven to be the most reliable (and the most widely-used)?

Thanking you in advance.

[RAY@HQ]

JVR, I suggest not looking at any of these indicators in isolation. They all interlock, interact with each other, sometimes even depend on each other. Look at the forest, not the trees. The data's been looked at for each of them, for example how batting eye correlates to average and CMD to WHIP. But it's really a misuse of the data (and a common one for newcomers) to try and key in on a single indicator at the expense of others. Read the Learning Center and Forecaster's Toolbox repeatedly until you can read Marketwatch every day and recognize and identify each indicator without having to look it up. The sooner you grasp each one individually, the sooner you'll be able to interrelate them. I can't stress it enough, that's where the sweet spot is.

In the back of the last few Forecasters has been a "Cheater's Bookmark", which contains formulas for the various BPIs and the levels we want to see from a player. I'm not sure I have that handy, but I'll post it later today or tonight when I can put my hands on it. Perhaps you'll find that helpful.

[circle360]

JVR have you bougt any of Ron's Forecasters. In the back of it he has a cheat sheet. If not I would definitely advise doing it. I have the past 5 years dogeared and highlighted. Then I transfer certain data into WORD. So I have for my draft.

Example : If a batter has a batting eye between 1.01 - 1.50. He has a 51% chance of batting over 300 and a 9% chance of batting under 250.

[circle360]

Damn Ray is too damn quick. I had to go grab my forecaster and find what I was looking for and Ray already had his post up already.



JVR - For batting - combine CT rate and walk Rate. And Batting eye and PX.

[JVR]

Thank-you both. I'll get a hold of a Forecaster to get things going and follow up on the links provided. My interest is piqued.

Is the Forecaster only available online or at most bookstores?

[circle360]

You can get it online here. Probably your fastest way. I know amazon has it, thats how I ordered my first one. Im sure Barnes and Noble has it as well. I seem to remember seeing it after I had bought the book.

[JVR]

Thx again.