a question about BABS

[tslaught]

So, Gunnar had 21 steals in 2024 and the forecaster projects him for 16 in 2025. J. Ramirez had 41 steals in 2024 and is projected for 24 in 2025.
And yet, the end of season BABS scores have Gunnar at PW-SB-AV and Ramirez at PW-s-AV, so it has Gunnar as a somewhat more skilled base-thief at this point. I wonder why it isn't the other way around; certainly age is one possibility, with Ramirez at 32.

[etex211]

This is from the BABS Project, book 2:

Speed (S+, SB, s): Here, BABS relies on Statistically Scouted Speed, which looks at run-scoring, triples, infield hits, and body mass index. BABS also looks at each runner’s track record, including how often he’s given the green light and his stolen base success rate.

ETA: The other thing I'll add is that BABS doesn't care about projections.

[tslaught]

Thanks; so the Sp rating is only tangentially related to the SB statistic that scores points in fantasy baseball? What we're looking for is steals or net steals, which isn't at all the same thing. Your reply is very helpful. If I'm looking for speed, I should draft Gunnar; if I'm looking for steals, Ramirez is a better option.

[JonE]

BABS describes skills, not roles. Although they had similar SB% in 2024, Ramirez attempted almost twice as many steals as Henderson did.

[tslaught]

yes, so Ramirez is a better option for steals but has a lower BABS rating for speed.

[RON@HQ]

BABS rates skill, which does not always correlate exactly with output. (Draft skills, not stats - right?) A high speed rating does not always mean a high SB total, but if you believe that better speed skill increases the odds of more SBs, then you have to project output that way.

THAT ALL SAID: BABS has consistently undervalued two players when it comes to SB output, and you hit on one of them. BABS has never bought into elevated speed skills of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor - in fact, I have often had to override her ratings to pass the smell test. (Similarly, she has also undervalued Jose Altuve's power.) She's done a good job valuing skills for everyone else, but those three players always give her fits. You might as well know that upfront.

FWIW, one day, she will be right. Gravity always wins.

[tslaught]

fascinating; thanks. Sorry to focus on a spot where BABS acts human. FWIW, I doubt whether Ramirez at age 32 steals 40 again and Henderson may steal north of 25. Yes, good old gravity wins. The MM scores favor Gunnar slightly, but almost a draw. I heard you say on the First Pitch Arizona podcast (if I understood you correctly) that you would take Ramirez every time in that range of the first round on the grounds of safety over Soto, Gunnar, Elly, Tucker, et al. Based on the end of season MM scores, you could also make a case for Alvarez or Lindor. Anyway, I look forward to the first 2025 BABS ratings later this month.