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I have just starting looking at indicators and things like that and I am confused by something. I was looking at the current projection database and notice that Brian Roberts is batting .394 right now and has a %BA of 90%. How is that possible? What this means to me is that Roberts has a 90% chance to continue or raise his average? What is wrong with what I am thinking? Thanks
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Good question.
It's a small sample-size quirk. What that indicator is saying is that Roberts current BPIs actually support even better BA than he currently has... you'll also see that his xBA is .433, which is basically saying the same thing.
Of course, Roberts isn't likely to continue with BPIs like a 13% BB rate, 91% CT%, or a 1.67 EYE. And he's certainly not going to keep hitting line drives at a 33% clip. If Roberts were to continue with those BPIs, well, we're saying those are the BPIs of a .400+ hitter.
So once those BPIs soften, not only will his BA settle, but so will his xBA... and BA% will better indicate the future trend.
Once guys get up to about the 100 AB mark, indicators like BA% will become much more useful.
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