Custom Values - The Effect of OBP

• 23 more Total Bases
• 9 more Runs Scored
• 26 more RBI
• 1 more Stolen Base

[Carlo]

I think those figures could well be correct. Helton's OBP is so high that by himself he probably raises your team OBP by close to .010 compared to a replacement level player. In a tight league, that's probably by itself worth three or four points in the standings--sometimes more. Whereas I don't think that your other margins would account for much more than one point in one of those four categories, if you're lucky.

Look at your average spread between teams in each category in your league last year to see what I mean. Then replace a player with a .340 OBP with Todd Helton and recalculate your team total, and see what the difference would have been.

[PD@HQ]

I used the December projections to manufacture a team using 13 $12 players (65% of a $260 budget, divided equally among 13 guys, with OBP the tiebreaker) and then added Helton and Pujols as UT to each of the otherwise identical lineups. The results:

Team Helton: 2744 TB/ 856 RS/ 795 RBI/ 83 SB/ .342 OBP
Team Pujols: 2797 TB/ 865 RS/ 821 RBI/ 84 SB/ .338 OBP

Smallish advantages in power for Pujols, no SB difference, and a middle-to-significant OBP edge to Helton.

[PD@HQ]

Apparently Pujols is now complaining of a recurrence in his heel pain.

Uh-oh.

[dmahlan]

Originally posted by DAVITT@HQ
I used the December projections to manufacture a team using 13 $12 players (65% of a $260 budget, divided equally among 13 guys, with OBP the tiebreaker) and then added Helton and Pujols as UT to each of the otherwise identical lineups.

Wow, thanks for taking the time to do this work! And thanks also to Carlo for your reply.

Carlo, in 2004 the average spread in the OBP category was .004, in 2003 it was .003.

Patrick's results seem to indicate there might be something wrong in the custom value generator's calculations on OBP. Helton's edge of .004 in OBP (basically one additional point in the OBP category) doesn't seem like it should be enough to offset Pujols' slight edge in the TB/RBI/RS categories AND provide Helton with an additional $6 in value.

David

[PD@HQ]

Originally posted by dmahlan
Patrick's results seem to indicate there might be something wrong in the custom value generator's calculations on OBP. Helton's edge of .004 in OBP (basically one additional point in the OBP category) doesn't seem like it should be enough to offset Pujols' slight edge in the TB/RBI/RS categories AND provide Helton with an additional $6 in value.

How much are the marginal gains in the other categories? Does 53 TB move you a point? At more than 150 TB per player, an additional 50 or so TB might not matter in the chase for category points. Ditto for 9 RS or 26 RBI. Could it be that the only category affected is OBP?

[dmahlan]

Originally posted by DAVITT@HQ
At more than 150 TB per player, an additional 50 or so TB might not matter in the chase for category points. Ditto for 9 RS or 26 RBI. Could it be that the only category affected is OBP?

For the past couple years the average spread in TB was about 100, so Pujols should only gain you about half a point in that category. The average spread in RBI was 28, so Pulols' 26 RBI should get you almost a point there. Those two alone, should offset Helton's gain of a standings point in OBP. It still doesn't seem like Helton should be worth $6 more than Pujols.

Of course, we've been basically using Standings Points Gain here, while I believe the custom value generator uses Scarcity, so that may be an explanation.

If the values are correct, though, folks in my league (myself included) are seriously undervaluing OBP. Barry Bonds (who the value generator rates at over $60) is a god...

David

[Carlo]

Okay, so I exaggerated the effect of Helton on the team OBP. Nevertheless, .004 is a huge impact on OBP for a single player, and practically guarantees a point. I just don't see that the other category advantages can say the same. Nonetheless, $6 seems like it's overstating the differential...given a healthy heel, which Pujols does not have.

[dmahlan]

I wonder if the size of the draft pool has something to do with the overvaluation of OBP? I ran the values again this evening and this time I noticed that there were almost 300 hitters listed -- about 75 more than would be included if 25-man rosters were known (I assume all these extra guys are "fringe" players who will be weeded out as cuts are made during spring training).

Could the fact that there are so many sub-.300 OBP players included in the valuation pool (over 100 of them), guys who would actually HURT your overall OBP, be responsible for inflating the value of good OBP guys?

David

[Carlo]

The lower the average OBP of your replacement level players, the higher Helton's OBP would drive his value. In another word, yes.