Keeper rankings

[wrledebuhr]

Does Baseball HQ list or do any type of keeper rankings? I've got some tough decisions to make and a general keeper ranking list by position would be great... thanks!

This is a great idea, but difficult to implement. It would be really preliminary, because a lot of players would be keepers if they are starters next year if they don't get hurt if they don't get traded if their teams don't trade for a better player if they don't opt for free agency if they have a good spring. And a keeper at $1 might not be a keeper at $10. And a keeper in a league with 30% draft inflation might not be in a league with 10%. And then there are league format variations. Nonetheless, preliminary keeper lists for a couple of standard formats might be possible, and I'd bet it would get a lot of attention from July through September, not to mention the off-season.

Anybody else interested?

[Ed@HQ]

Like Frank said, keepers are VERY league-specific. And I don't know about anyone else, but I think deciding who to keep and who to drop (and who to try to steal from other owners) is one of the most fun things to do on my own.

Having said that, it is always interesting to get HQ's take. I think we could guestimate an average 2004 auction cost for each player in a $260 league and a projected average 2005 auction cost (and projected 2005 value?) for each player.

Then players could be ranked by $2004 cost minus projected $2005 cost (and/or $2004 cost minus 2005 value), in total and by position.

Players that might rise to the top of the list would be guys like David Wright or Jeromy Burnitz (whose projected 2005 cost -- or value -- will likely dramatically exceed average 2004 cost). Players whose 2004 cost exceeds likely 2005 cost (or value) would be considered non-keepers.

Maybe just do a 4x4 list and a 5x5 list, but any other permutations might be taking this a little too far.

[Michael@HQ]

I'd rather have BBHQ efforts directed into improving projections.

What info do I need to make a keeper decision?

• Accurate projection of 2005 dollar value in my league's format
• Inflation in my league
• Knowledge of how player fits onto my roster and position scarcity concerns unique to my league
• Estimate of player's auction price in my league if I throw him back
• Comparison to other keeper alternatives if I'm at my maximum number of keepers
• Gut check, based partly on whether I really have confidence in the player
• If I throw the player back, do I think I can find a better bargain in the draft? How confident am I of my ability to handle the draft well versus the competition in my league?

I have a hard time seeing how BBHQ can provide data that'll help me with anything other than the very first item on this list (although sometimes a conversation on the message boards can help me with the gut check aspect if I'm wavering in either direction).

[wrledebuhr]

I agree w/ Michael... projected 2005 dollar values for 4x4 or 5x5 by position would be very valuable info and hopefully won't be too difficult to generate. Thanks for all the posts guys!

[miduncan]

I believe there's an article in Roto HQ that has a formula, with spreadsheet, for generating keeper scores. The problem, in the context of September and of this thread, is that it requires an '05 projection.

[GERALD@HQ]

I think the best we can do at this point is to indicate those players who are most likely to improve or continue at an improved level, those who will not remain at their current level, and those who will rebound. If we can at least give some indication in the movement of a player for next year, then we have a jumping off point for future discussions and projections.