Initial 2018 projections - issues and comments thread

[Snider]

Hi Ray - Really enjoyed the PDF of the Baseball Forecaster - Thank you. But I have 3 questions. (1) What day in December do you anticipate the first preliminary projections to be out? (2) When in January do you expect to start up with the Facts/Flukes column? (3) You posted the first installment of the Dynasty Reload - Catchers on 11/17 but have not come out with the next installment - when do you anticipate that to happen? Thank you very much.

[RAY@HQ]

Good questions!

- Dynasty Reload: will resume early this week.
- Facts/Flukes: those will return (prob once a week initially) sometime in December, then stay weekly until right after the Super Bowl.
- Projections: mid-December here on the site... I'm targeting 12/15, but since that's winter meetings week, it may take me until early the following week to catch up on player movement.

[Snider]

Ray - now that the meetings are over, what date are you targeting the first set of projections? Do you think this weekend? No pressure just excited. Thank you.

[RAY@HQ]

Yes, I'm working on them right now offline, while our tech guys are prepping the site for the new year. Planning to upload sometime this weekend... then it's usually a day or two of cleanup to get them stabilized. (There's only so much verification I can do offline.)

So, you'll see them pop up in the course of this weekend, but probably Monday/Tuesday before I'd trust them.

[anb]

OK, darn it. I get it. I shouldn't keep clicking on projections every 5 minutes through the weekend. Patience is a virtue....I'll work on it.

[RAY@HQ]

It's not *that* imminent. When you see the 2017 stats disappear from the first tab on PLink, then you know we're starting to get somewhere. Planning a big push on this tonight.

[RAY@HQ]

Update if you're hanging around here: still working on the infrastructure side, so you probably won't see any data tonight.

[anb]

But still, comforting to know progress is being made! Thank goodness it's Monday and I have work to distract me.

[RAY@HQ]

The 2018 Forecaster comments are now posted in Playerlink. So there's something you can have fun with right now.

The biggest part of this process is archiving the 2017 data... that actually involves rebuilding our stats archive all the way back to 2002. That was running overnight and is still running. Once that's done, I'll be able to upload initial projections and start cleaning them up.

[Snider]

Ray - Once the initial projections are uploaded onto the sight, how long would you recommend we wait to analyze the projections so you can clean up the initial projections?? In other words if the initial projections get loaded tonight when do you think we should start analyzing?? Thank you.

[RAY@HQ]

Once we have a good upload, I'll post a thread here with known issues, and let you guys add to it/comment, and I'll update as we address them. Some of those are always the same issues each December...

- QS projections will be wonky
- we won't have Holds projections set up yet
- DLDays will be missing for a few weeks
- we won't have ADP data til January
- a bunch of players with low projected PT won't have projections yet.
- I'm not exactly sure how Ohtani is going to work, but I think he'll only be projected as a pitcher for now, and we'll have to get him set up as a hitter a bit later.

But if you're willing to live with the known issues, you'll be able to work with the bulk of the data almost immediately... hopefully by first thing tomorrow.

[Snider]

Thanks Ray - very helpful.

[anb]

Boom! Work will have to wait....

[RAY@HQ]

We're cooking with gas now.

I've looked at the batter data briefly, it looks pretty good. Some issues

- ages are wrong
- ADP is last year
- MM codes are wrong in at least some cases

If you see anything else wrong with batters, drop a note here.

Haven't had a chance to look at pitchers yet. Those are usually messier. Will update later.

[anb]

Looks really good--Dillon Peters wins the only thing that leaps out.

[Whistler]

I assume the "Projected 2019" in the CDG function should be "Projected 2018"

[Hugo the Great]

CSV download for pitchers is not functional.

[RAY@HQ]

Looks really good--Dillon Peters wins the only thing that leaps out.

I'll put him on my review list, thx.

I assume the "Projected 2019" in the CDG function should be "Projected 2018"

Yes, should have mentioned that. We rolled the year forward twice instead of once. Should be fixed tonight.

CSV download for pitchers is not functional.

Might not work til AM, I think those links update daily.

[Snider]

Ray - Christmas for many of us just came about a week early. Thank you very much. You may want to check Shohei Ohtani's projection but everything looks great. Just like the stock market - under promise and over deliver. I was surprised to see the projections uploaded as I expected it to happen tomorrow. This was a pleasant surprise - if Baseball HQ was a publicly traded company the stock would be up 12% in the after market.

[RAY@HQ]

Yeah, I figured Ohtani would need some attention... I haven't even looked at him, so don't get too excited about what you see (good or bad).

More cleanup to be done... but it only gets cleaner from here.

[Posada Adventure]

Ray, just noticing everyone’s age on playerlink is 10 yrs off it looks like. A lot of 10-25 yr olds in league. Lol

[RAY@HQ]

Ray, just noticing everyone’s age on playerlink is 10 yrs off it looks like. A lot of 10-25 yr olds in league. Lol

Mentioned above, yes.

[soapsup]

Where's Aroldis Chapman?

[RAY@HQ]

Where's Aroldis Chapman?

Looks fine to me: http://www.baseballhq.com/members/to...rlink/?id=3448

[soapsup]

I swear he wasn't there before!! OY!