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  • Yankees depth charts

    Something seems wrong with Yankee depth charts.

    A) Posada is according to Cashman the primary DH for the yankees in 2011 and will not see time behind the plate.

    b) Thames is projected in the depth chart to have 25% of the PT... except that to my knowledge Thames is a free agent and no longer on the team.

    IMO Posada should have at least 75%-85% PT, and maybe more.


    Here was the blurb from today
    At 39 years old, Posada's skills are declining, but not dead yet:

    He's certainly not near a full-time player anymore, even with moving off C and to DH. 400 AB would be a best-case scenario.

    Though his ct% is obviously on a downward trajectory, he did hold off another drop in 2010. But if the decline starts again, his value will erode even further.

    He loves the new Yankee Stadium, as his hr/f and PX show. In addition, in 2010 he compiled a .922 OPS at home; .694 OPS on the road.

    Posada will continue to have some value, especially in leagues where you can slot him at catcher (enjoy it, as this may be your last year). But age and increasing risk of both injury and an unstoppable skills decline make him a second-tier DH choice.

    I really disagree with this... he's going to be a DH, this means a lot less nicks, and bangs, etc. He had 383 abs in back to back years as a C who sometimes DHed. As a full time DH, he should easily surpass 400 ABs... because he should be healthier.

    As far as he his home road splits. Can we please do a little more research. The man had a .226 BABIP on the road last year.... career road BABIP is .313, it was .285 in 2009, .308 in 2008. I think its fair to say he was unlucky. Even if we regress it only to .285 his road AVG would be about .250 last year.

    If he were catching again, this projection would be pretty accurate maybe even optimistic, but to expect him to only repeat his 2010 numbers, when he is no longer catching, and DHing full time (so no new position, etc.)... seems very negative.
    Last edited by jbluestone; 12-24-2010, 11:28 PM.
    "I mean, look at you. You don't even have a name tag. You've got no chance. Why don't you just fall down?"

    -Nigel Powers (Goldmember)


    5*5 HTH 10 teams $380 cap
    Use OPS instead of AVG and Saves +.5Holds.
    28 man rosters 20 man Farms (C,1b,2b,3b,SS, IF, Of, OF, OF, OF, U, U, 8 SP, 4RP)
    Daily Lineup changes, Weekly FAAB. 60/40 hitter/pitcher split.

  • #2
    At his age, I do not think it's reasonable to just say that because he isn't catching, Posada is a lock for, say, 500 AB. It's not the same situation, but you probably made the exact same argument about Nick Johnson last year. and as for the home/road split, the metrics cited refer to a power differential, not a BA differential... So I don't see why BABIP should have been mentioned.

    Thames is still on the roster because we typically dont move FAs away until they sign with a new team, unless its certain he wont be back with the old club. But he isn't taking projected AB from Posada.

    Comment


    • #3
      I dont buy any parrallel to nick johnson, who never stayed healthy. Posada, had 400 abs as a catcher the past 2 years. about 120 games... thats full time as a catcher, not what it was say in 2007 when he would play in 140+ games. Posada moving to full time DH to me means he's gonna get full time DH ABs.. .see David Ortiz etc. for that. I think projecting posda for less time when he;s moving from catcher to DH doesnt make sense, he should be at least 75% pt, though i expect it to be more like 85%.

      When he has missed time its been because of throwing issues or knee pain. Being a DH, this will not be nearly as much of an issue, this isn't a guy who always got injured and missed significant time. IMO This PT projection is off, and needs to be fixed... he is the full time DH
      "I mean, look at you. You don't even have a name tag. You've got no chance. Why don't you just fall down?"

      -Nigel Powers (Goldmember)


      5*5 HTH 10 teams $380 cap
      Use OPS instead of AVG and Saves +.5Holds.
      28 man rosters 20 man Farms (C,1b,2b,3b,SS, IF, Of, OF, OF, OF, U, U, 8 SP, 4RP)
      Daily Lineup changes, Weekly FAAB. 60/40 hitter/pitcher split.

      Comment


      • #4
        Look, it's December, every projection is subject to revision over the next three months. And if I were to place an over/under bet on Posada's currently projected AB, I would probably say "over". I will have our Yankee analyst take another look at this next week (it is Christmas Day after all), before our next projection update in January. But I don't necessarily believe a change is warranted right now. You are free to disagree and make your own adjustment to Posada's projection, of course.

        Comment


        • #5
          Thanks ray, sorry overreacted to your firs response , why are both up right now ... :-)

          Yes please have pt analyst take a look cause it appears they are giving about 25% of dh time to Thames, and since he's been told he is the full time dh it seems that he should have that pt.
          "I mean, look at you. You don't even have a name tag. You've got no chance. Why don't you just fall down?"

          -Nigel Powers (Goldmember)


          5*5 HTH 10 teams $380 cap
          Use OPS instead of AVG and Saves +.5Holds.
          28 man rosters 20 man Farms (C,1b,2b,3b,SS, IF, Of, OF, OF, OF, U, U, 8 SP, 4RP)
          Daily Lineup changes, Weekly FAAB. 60/40 hitter/pitcher split.

          Comment


          • #6
            Again, Thames is a completely separate issue. But yes, I will have the whole thing reviewed.

            Comment


            • #7
              It seems to me that playing time forecasts will keep shifting because the Yankees are likely to sign a fourth outfielder who will compete for the DH at bats.
              "I made baseball as fun as doing your taxes!" -- Bill James on The Simpsons

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Michael@HQ View Post
                It seems to me that playing time forecasts will keep shifting because the Yankees are likely to sign a fourth outfielder who will compete for the DH at bats.
                Yup... and it remains to be seen whether Montero sticks around, because if his bat comes quickly, he could push for DH ABs. And A-Rod may need to occupy DH once a week or so.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Thanks guys, very valid points.... i still think ABs are on the low side, and honestly wouldn't even really care right now if i weren't drafting in an NFBC draft and micro analyzing everything... lol

                  merry xmas, thanks for being awesome!
                  "I mean, look at you. You don't even have a name tag. You've got no chance. Why don't you just fall down?"

                  -Nigel Powers (Goldmember)


                  5*5 HTH 10 teams $380 cap
                  Use OPS instead of AVG and Saves +.5Holds.
                  28 man rosters 20 man Farms (C,1b,2b,3b,SS, IF, Of, OF, OF, OF, U, U, 8 SP, 4RP)
                  Daily Lineup changes, Weekly FAAB. 60/40 hitter/pitcher split.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Just curious but, HITH did this thread end up in the Minor's forum? :>)

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      i dunno, i also posted my question about a prospect in the major league teams forum... not sure what happened.
                      "I mean, look at you. You don't even have a name tag. You've got no chance. Why don't you just fall down?"

                      -Nigel Powers (Goldmember)


                      5*5 HTH 10 teams $380 cap
                      Use OPS instead of AVG and Saves +.5Holds.
                      28 man rosters 20 man Farms (C,1b,2b,3b,SS, IF, Of, OF, OF, OF, U, U, 8 SP, 4RP)
                      Daily Lineup changes, Weekly FAAB. 60/40 hitter/pitcher split.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by mibush View Post
                        Just curious but, HITH did this thread end up in the Minor's forum? :>)
                        I moved it to the HQ Tech Support forum. It seems like it belongs there or the Clubhouse forum.
                        "I made baseball as fun as doing your taxes!" -- Bill James on The Simpsons

                        Comment

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