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Thread: Big $$ experts league

  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluenose View Post
    Suppose you, me, and Usain Bolt are going to run 100 metres. We each put in $10. The organizer's going to pocket $5, and the winner's going to get $25. My expectation in this contest is negative. Mr. Bolt's? Not so much.
    The analogy isn't apt. Fantasy baseball is a game with a HUGE luck component (and therefore randomness) than a 100-metre dash, which is essentially all skill. We all like to think that the outcome in our fantasy league's is based mostly on our skill as drafters and managers, but we also all know it's not really true. If it were, we'd all win every year!

    It's more like poker. There's a lot of risk management, money management, and table awareness, but three of a kind still beats two pair. And if you, me, and Phil Ivey get into a poker game, in a short run I like my chances all right (certainly more than my chances outrunning Usain Bolt) because I know I might catch some cards. Nonetheless, over the long run I have a negative expectancy because the rake guarantees that I (and all my fellow players) will receive payoffs that are short of true odds. And the shortness varies with the rake.

    Someone noted that the NFBC probably gets some play because players are confident the league won't implode and take the money down with it. (Reminds me of Charlie Munger's quiz to a B-school crowd a few years ago, when he asked them under what circs it's rational to pay a higher price, and after a while one kind finally noted that it might be good to pay more if the item was critical, because price acted as a proxy for quality.) It's a valid point, but I wasn't thinking about an individual setting up a high-stakes league; I was wondering why Bally's or Harrah' doesn't try it. They have a much lower need to have the fees cover overhead, and heaven knows players wouldn't worry about losing the entire pot because the owner wanted to buy a new car or take Paris Hilton out for a night on the town.

    Even at that, a private large-stakes league could install fairly simple controls (12 signatures for all withdrawals, for instance) to prevent looting the fund. There are thousands of "stock clubs" in Canada and the US where just such controls are in place and work very well to protect the money.
    Last edited by PD@HQ; 02-06-2010 at 06:47 PM.
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  2. #27

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    FWIW, two high stakes football contests have gone out of business the past couple of years, leaving their prize-winners high and dry.

    I think (well, truth be told, I know) there is more to it than meets the eye.

    This year there is a challenger to the NFBC.

    Plus there have been quite a few private leagues formed from friendships stemming from the NFBC.

    What I have always wondered is why do some enter the main event of the NFBC with the hope of "just winning my league?" If you want the comfort of playing in the NFBC, and there is MOST DEFINITELY a comfort level involved with respect to the way it is run, why not take the entry fee for the main even and enter satellites instead, where there is nothing taken out for the overall payouts so if you indeed win your league, you get a much steeper return on your investment.

  3. #28
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    Who was running the football ones that failed?
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    'Put Marvin Miller in the Hall of Fame!'

  4. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by DAVITT@HQ View Post
    Who was running the football ones that failed?
    Honestly don't know because I don't play but they talk about it at the NFFC forums, the football version of the NFBC which I have played in the past.

  5. #30
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    "Fantasy Jungle" was slow-paying; not sure if that got squared away or busted out. AFFL no-paid, changed ownership, and the new owners were making overtures about squaring things, but I don't know how that turned out either. I never played with either outfit. I thought I was being slow-paid at Ant Sports one year and didn't go back, but in retrospect there might not have been anything to be worried about: customer service is lousy to non-existent but I've never heard of a no-pay there.

    Re: the Bolt comparison: I admit I'm stretching here, and yes the luck component in running 100 m is a lot less, but some of the NFBC entrants really do have zero chance. It's a long way from the typical local league or Yahoo league to NFBC. I was in an NFBC sat last year who left the draft room after round 8 because, "after the first eight rounds, everybody's the same anyway".

    Re: the notion of private leagues with strict, simple fund controls: if you ever get that going, please, get in touch. I'd do it myself but I don't know how and wouldn't want to ask a dozen people to join me on the learning curve.

    To Zola's point about people saying they just want to win their league: I think you're spot on, sir, but I think deep down these people aren't being honest with themselves: Deep down they want the lottery ticket of winning the $100K.

  6. #31
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    Dec 2005
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    MN
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluenose View Post
    "Fantasy Jungle" was slow-paying; not sure if that got squared away or busted out. AFFL no-paid, changed ownership, and the new owners were making overtures about squaring things, but I don't know how that turned out either. I never played with either outfit. I thought I was being slow-paid at Ant Sports one year and didn't go back, but in retrospect there might not have been anything to be worried about: customer service is lousy to non-existent but I've never heard of a no-pay there.

    Re: the Bolt comparison: I admit I'm stretching here, and yes the luck component in running 100 m is a lot less, but some of the NFBC entrants really do have zero chance. It's a long way from the typical local league or Yahoo league to NFBC. I was in an NFBC sat last year who left the draft room after round 8 because, "after the first eight rounds, everybody's the same anyway".

    Re: the notion of private leagues with strict, simple fund controls: if you ever get that going, please, get in touch. I'd do it myself but I don't know how and wouldn't want to ask a dozen people to join me on the learning curve.

    To Zola's point about people saying they just want to win their league: I think you're spot on, sir, but I think deep down these people aren't being honest with themselves: Deep down they want the lottery ticket of winning the $100K.
    Bluenose and Todd Zola are both spot on. I for one play in many private NFBC leagues where the only "rake" is the site fee. If one wants to start a league and have funds/fees secured, you have to use leaguesafe.com Ck the site out. Founded by Paul Charchian.

  7. #32
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    Leaguesafe is interesting!
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    'Put Marvin Miller in the Hall of Fame!'

  8. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by DAVITT@HQ View Post
    Leaguesafe is interesting!
    I use it for my fantasy football league. If you're joining a league with a a group of strangers, make sure you ask the commish if he has total control of the pot or if the league needs to vote prior to funds being released for distribution.

    I'm issuing my football payout after tonights game and the money is direct depoited into the league members bank accounts ... Sweet!
    “The most beautiful thing in the world is a ballpark filled with people.”
    Bill Veeck

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