Custom Draft Guide: Too many pitchers? And a 2nd ?

[NICK@HQ]

When I use the Custom Draft Guide to create valuation for a 12-team NL-only league with the standard 14/9 positions and 5x5 scoring, I get too many pitchers come out with positive values. With 12 teams auctioning 9 pitchers each, there should be 108 pitchers with positive values. Instead I get:

Valuation: Top Players -- around 130+
Valuation: Balanced -- around 150+

That's true regardless of whether or not I select Force Positions.

Is this because it has no way of knowing how many SP or RP we will pick each, so that it has to give us extra of both in case we go heavy in one direction or another?

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Second question: What valuation method should I use? I'm in a keeper league where there is typically 25-30% inflation, and so top players at auction typically go for more than Balanced values. We do have liberal free agent moves, so the site suggests I go with Top Players. OK, but then do I apply inflation on top of those already inflated numbers? Or should I just stick with Balanced and then apply inflation myself?

[timg]

Second question: What valuation method should I use? I'm in a keeper league where there is typically 25-30% inflation, and so top players at auction typically go for more than Balanced values. We do have liberal free agent moves, so the site suggests I go with Top Players. OK, but then do I apply inflation on top of those already inflated numbers? Or should I just stick with Balanced and then apply inflation myself?

You've got to apply inflation regardless of which method you use.

[Howie M]

I'm seeing "top players" with much more realistic prices this year.

And yeah, adjust for inflation after that.
But in a lot of leagues, a 20 pct inflation rate comes quite close to being negated by "optimal player purchases."
So once you use top player, I'd say roughly those are targets - if you can get the top guys for that price, go for it. But be willing to spend an extra couple of bucks for the guy you need most.

HQ gives a very good chance for bargains late (especially Ps), so really you can afford to spend a little more on the cream of the crop. At least, that's my focus this year!

[NICK@HQ]

Uh, so if 20 pct inflation is sorta cooked into the "top players" results anyway, as it were, and yet I'm supposed to apply inflation to those values anyway, wouldn't that raise the prices too much?

[PD@HQ]

Inflation isn't part of the CDV.

[NICK@HQ]

OK, so by what general method is value assigned to the top players and removed from the bottom players?

[timg]

OK, so by what general method is value assigned to the top players and removed from the bottom players?

I'm guessing that replacement level is shifted so that top players end up with a higher percentage of the marginal pool of stats. Which reflects the philosophy of top players -- owners can afford to go an extra buck or two on the top players because they can better pick out the cheap players who are likely to produce. That is, for them replacement level is higher than for your average owner.

Edit: Probably way off...

[NICK@HQ]

That's what I suspect is what they are doing too, but I don't know for sure. It's not inflation in that the end-game guys are dropping in price, not being raised. But the high-end guys are being raised in price in a way that mimics inflation. To then apply inflation on top of already inflated prices seems like a good idea only if you are in a league that habitually overpays for stars.

My leagues don't. They pay big for stars, but generally in line with inflated values. So I'm thinking that it's the balanced pricing coupled with inflation that makes sense to me.

[PD@HQ]

I think it's two different things. Setting the CDV for Top Players reflects your belief that in your (uninflated) league the owners will lean more the Stars & Scrubs than to Spread The Risk. So the vlautions give you an idea of what those players will be "worth" to owners.

If there is league inflation, that's a separate matter. Inflation boosts all prices further. Even if Pujols comes up as $40 in your league CDValuation, his inflated bid price in a 25% inflation league is $50. There might be oppotunities in bidding past CDV "value" but landing the studs before "inflated value."

[RobR]

OK, so by what general method is value assigned to the top players and removed from the bottom players?

When we do balanced valuation, the value of a marginal stat is equal for all players. In Top players mode, we use different values of a marginal stat depending on where a player falls in the distribution.

[RobR]

I'm working on the too many players in top players mode.

[NICK@HQ]

I'm working on the too many players in top players mode.

Thank you.

[Steve NY]

Rob, any progress?

I ran an 11 team league through the CDV this morning and received 145 pitchers with positive value. Seems as though #99 was the last $3 pitcher, so there were 46 players assigned values of $2 or $1 that actually shouldn't have positive value in an 11 team league.

[RobR]

Fix coming soon.

[RobR]

Updates were deployed tonight.