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Thread: Balance of Year Projections

  1. #26
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    That's not really fair. We do not make these numbers up ourselves. We have to rely on an outside service to provide daily updates, which is something we never had before. That feed has to be integrated into a new process that we have designed. There is no 2005 data to test with because we did not have the feed back then.

  2. #27
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    I think the move to daily updates will be very cool, just as I liked the upgrades to the valuator from last year. The problem is, these kinks come at the worst possible time. Selfishly, my first free agency interval begins in a day, and now I don't know what to make of the projections files, for what is usually the most critical FA interval of the year. I can accept a work in progress, but just plain wrong stuff (as Nick and co. have pointed out) is really frustrating.

  3. #28
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    Subscribers don't like bugs at any time.

    If we're going to have bugs, this strikes me as the best possible time, after everyone is done with their drafts but early enough in the season that most folks are doing very many transactions yet but instead letting their team ride and seeing what they've got for a month or so.
    I have a lot of apps open in my brain right now." -- Lin-Manuel Miranda

  4. #29
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    Yup. Bugs is bugs, and they stink any ol' time, but it's the nature of this sort of change. I'm also enjoying the new stuff and looking forward to the future upgrades.

    That said, it's in the nature of my weekly spreadsheet analysis that I'm going to notice all of the changes to the projections. That means I tend to catch a lot of these bugs as they happen. Ron & co, is there an email address you would prefer I send these bug reports to, instead of posting them in the message boards? I'm trying to let others know as well, and only when I'm pretty sure this really is a bug. But if you have a hotline email route to your tech team, I'd be happy to do that instead.

  5. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael
    If we're going to have bugs, this strikes me as the best possible time, after everyone is done with their drafts but early enough in the season that most folks are doing very many transactions yet but instead letting their team ride and seeing what they've got for a month or so.
    This was my thought. Teams should be doing more watching and less moving at this early time of year. I would never think of going through this process in June, when trading season is in full force.

    Ron & co, is there an email address you would prefer I send these bug reports to, instead of posting them in the message boards?
    techsupport@baseballhq.com

  6. #31
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    Well, my story is a bit different, as I'm in a straight draft league and we have free agency intervals every 3 weeks. So I get to toy around and see if Emil Brown has any higher or lower upside potential than the free agents out there, and the only cost to pick up a player is the opportunity cost of losing the player I drafted.

    And did I mention that my closers are Cordero and Guardado, and I might need relief help?

  7. #32
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    However, back to the subject of this thread, and assusming the projections data is now reasonably correct (but not date stamped); the balance of season projections still is not correct in the player projection files, nor is it correct in the playerlink database. Just follow the Pujols example using HR as a data point. I presume you are still having difficulty with the balance of season projections in both (not that I'm using that right now, and is a nice but not neceessary add on at this point, for me). Just letting you know that this problem is not corrected, and might be useful if it is not going to be corrected soon just to state that the player projections are correct as of now, but still working out bugs in balance of season projections. With daily updates, the balance of season projections will continue with a mess of postings. Just FYI - I did not see in your update today that this was mentioned. Good luck!

  8. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by RON@HQ
    All projections are balance of season numbers, which are then added to YTD data to create the full season lines. Balance numbers always take into account relevant changes to a player's skill and playing time.
    Sorry for re-posting but as I re-read this thread, I see I was under the wrong impression. So all new projections out there are balance of season numbers, not new projected totals (except in player-link, where you can find totals). So is that correct, that the only place that re-projected totals for the year are in the Player Link Database? Thanks for bearing up under the heat

  9. #34
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    Yes that is correct.

    I just finished up modifying the projections a bit. Projections will now be updated daily, along with all the sites stats. The HTML pages include a date when the last update was run. I corrected a number of formating issues within the projections as well( Specifically in Internet Explorer ).

  10. #35
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    Thanks for the update. Things are looking better.

    Can I ask for a double-check on Jason Bergmann's numbers? A -51 BPV is so far off from his preseason numbers, I can't help but think there is something buggy about it.

  11. #36
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    I noticed some oddities in the last 7 days BPV's on the playerlink pages as ell. I am going to be looking into these, double checking all the formulas, and verifing they are indeed coming out correctly.

  12. #37
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    Forgive me if this was dealt with on another thread...but will G/L/F data be included on all the projection sheets (Proj+YTD,Proj,Daily)?
    "Give that fan a contract!" - Rex Barney

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  13. #38
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    I will assume this is answered somewhere, but I couldn't find it.

    On a players projection page, there is a dollar value for what he has earned and a dollar value for what he will earn for the remainder of the season. For example Ty Wigginton TB has an actual to date in 5X5 of $22.2. The projected balance number is $5.0. If I understand the projections correctly in the above example (rough numbers) he has earned $22 in 1/6th of the season and will earn $5 for 5/6ths of the season. So in simple math, he will be worth $22 +$5, +$5, +$5, +$5, +$5 ($57) divided by 6 months or $9.50.

    Can a final projected earned be placed on the web site saying that at the end of the season he should have earned $9.50? The reason I ask is that in keeper leagues it gives you some idea of value for trading to determine whether you'd keep him for the following year at the price you have him.

    Thanks
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