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Forecaster, stats and projections, custom draft guide

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  • Forecaster, stats and projections, custom draft guide

    Hi all. I just ran my league ($320 NL 5x5) through the draft guide and am consistently getting lower values for my players than can be found in the Forecaster or in the HQ stats and projections service. This is a bit weird as I assume values from these two other sources would logically be based on a standard $260 budget. For Example, Lincecum is $27 in the Forecaster, $29 in the Stats and projections, but comes up at $22 or something like that in the draft guide, even though I am putting in my league budget.

    Any ideas on why this is happening?

  • #2
    Forecaster is very rough, with PT way over reality.

    When I ran Lincecum through the CDG with 13 team NL-only and default settings, I got $29, same as the projections. Change params to "Middle Players"/70% offensive split, and Lincecum drops to $24.
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    'Put Marvin Miller in the Hall of Fame!'


    • #3
      Try "Top Players" as a valuation, that will help a bit.
      NL 12-team 5x5 auction keeper. no bench, limited 'free' moves #oldschool
      our owners have a combined 292 years of experience in this 36-year-old league that is being cryogenically frozen until spring 2021.
      a redraft, no-transaction "race to the finish" served as our 2020 entertainment


      • #4
        So the problem seems to be when I add in the # of bench players we have in our league. I started adding the variations in our league one at a time, calulating values after each change. The values generated made sense right up to the end, until I did one final calculation with the 15 bench players (reserve roster) that my league allows. All the values popped down to the unreasonably low values I talked about before, including Lincecum at $22 in a $320 league. Either this is an inappropriate use of the "Bench players" field, or there is a glitch there somewhere, it seems.


        • #5
          First of all, take a look at the back page of the Forecaster re: the values in the book and how *not* to use them.

          And the "bench players" field should only get used if you want the bench players to be figured into your league budget. If you have a separate reserve draft that doesn't use your auction dollars, keep # bench players at 0.


          • #6
            Thanks Ray. I was only using the Forecaster valuations to profile the problems I was having with the outputs from the CDG. Zero in the bench players field takes care of that.