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Portfolio 3 and Mayberry in a Straight Draft

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  • Portfolio 3 and Mayberry in a Straight Draft


    This is my 2nd year as a subscriber to BHQ and first year buying the Forecaster. Last year was an experiment as I got used to all the BHQ intricacies, but this year I have grasp on it and have a plan in mind. I really like the idea of the Portfolio 3 plan with the Mayberry combination, and I am going to use RotoLab to help manage this.

    However I am trying to figure out how to best apply this method to a straight draft league. I read the different suggestions on how to make this work in the Forecaster but I feel like I need some clarification. The forecaster suggests drafting Tier 1 guys in rounds 5-8 and it also says to uses 5-8 slots for Tier 1 guys, Tier 2 is 7-13 and Tier 3 is 5-10. It says Tier 2 guys should take you to Round 16 or so. I am finding that if I stop drafting Tier 1 guys at round 8 and look to Tier 2 guys I am reaching often, and there aren't as many Tier 2 guys out there as 1's or 3's.

    So my main question is..

    Should I really limit my Tier 1 guys to 8 roster slots? I understand that in an auction league for budgeting purposes you would probably have to have this limit, but in a draft I am seeing Tier 1 guys available throughout. If these guys are low risk and high skill shouldn't I want a whole team of these guys if available?

    What I have been doing in mocks is making sure I get all Tier 1s in the first 5 rounds and then opening up my choices to the Tier 2 guys, until I have the minimum Tier 2 guys and then open it up to Tier 3s. However I have stopped drafting Tier 1s once I reach 8 roster slots , as the forecaster said. I still have good teams when I do it this way but there are a lot of picks in that Tier 2 category that feel like reaches.

    Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated!

    Thank you!


  • #2
    Great first post. Welcome to the forums!

    The key to HQ, as you are beginning to see, is that we are teaching philosophies, not by-the-numbers do-it-this-way check lists. So while Portfolio 3 provides some tiers and rounds to use them in, the most important thing is to grasp the reason behind those suggestions: Minimize risk in the early going.

    Now if you are finding that you can keep drafting Tier 1 guys in later rounds, go right ahead. Everyone's specific league setting is different and unique. Take the principles, apply them as they make sense, and then follow your unique circumstances to apply the principles uniquely to your needs.

    No need to reach if other, better guys are available. In principle, don't reach too much in a draft. Let the draft come to you. Just be aware of how things are going and be ready to react. Sounds as if you are have the awareness part down, now you just need to let go of the ropes and follow the principles as they make sense. / @NickRichardsHQ


    • #3
      Thanks Nick I appreciate it!


      • #4
        I think in some leagues , yes , you can draft as many Tier 1's as you can. If more than half your roster is Tier one you have a real chance on finishing in the money. However, winning it all takes some luck and chances. So you want to be able to balance that a little bit. Understanding is the first step, implementing it is the 2nd. If you are looking at a Tier 1 or a Tier 2 guy and you are undecided, go with the Tier 1. If you are looking at a tier one and Tier 2 but you kind of like the "sexier" Tier 2 guy, go with your gut and take the Tier 2. P3 is really about Risk. If you can decrease your risk in the first 1/3 of the draft, that will allow you more flexibility later on. however an entire team of Tier 1 guys might not be real risky but probably won't win the overall prize.


        • #5
          Thanks Doc.

          That was one of my concerns as well..if my team would be "too safe" and not have a lot of upside if I went with too many Tier 1s. While I dont plan on actually drafting all Tier 1s I was just curious if there was any reason I should absolutely limit them to 8 roster spots.

          I think for now im goin to keep experimenting with this during mocks. I think i will go all Tier 1s through rounds 7 or 8 (depending on whats available) and the open up my pool to tier 2s. (While not stopping drafting Tier 1s all together if a good value arises). Then wait till around round 16 or 17 to open up my pool to Tier 3s. That should give me a good 8- 10 rounds or so at the end of the draft to get some of the more risky tier 3 players with the upside I need to win.