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Looking for hr/9 Rates in Forecaster

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  • Looking for hr/9 Rates in Forecaster

    Hi Ray,
    Ron was talking about a new hr/9 rate filter of 3.5% or less for LIMA pitchers but I don't see the hr/9 data in the individual pitcher boxes. Just wondering if that data will be made available? Thanks.

  • #2
    That was just a filter Ron used in the LIMA formula, we've got HR/F in the box, both HR/F and HR/9 on the site, I think we're covered.

    In all seriousness, it is kind of confusing... I might be asking Ron to bend that back into HR/F next year just for consistency.


    • #3
      Good idea...yes, Ron promoting data that isn't in the Forecaster is a bit confusing...and not consistent. Thanks Ray.


      • #4
        RAY@HQ I don't think you are covered. I am looking for "home run rate" as well. HR/9 can't be right. For LIMA, it says, "a home run rate of less than 3.5%" 3.5 HR/9, would be 2.3 HRs in 6 innings pitched, certainly not a good benchmark for a quality pitcher. Also, very few pitchers have an HR/9 ABOVE 3.5 (only 32 of 454 pitchers in the NL last year exceeded 3.5, surely 92% of the NL pitchers don't meet this LIMA filter.

        Similarly, it can't be HR/FB either, look at the HR/FB rates for top pitchers, sub 10% is great (see also the cheater's book mark where the NL League average is 12%). Bryan Abreau, first pitchers in the boxes, LIMA A, HR/FB 5%; Acevedo LIMA A, HR/FB 12%

        So, can we get a definition of "home run rate" for pitchers?


        • #5
          RAY@HQ I'd like the stat "home run rate" to be in the player statistics and projections so I can filter on those in a downloaded csv/spreadsheet. Going through every player box is unnecessarily time consuming. Of course, if it can be calculated using stats already there, that's fine with me.


          • #6
            No, it's not HR/9, or HR/FB. It's HR/batters faced. Since we don't have batters faced handy in the player box or spreadsheet, you can estimate that as:

            HR/((2.82 * IP)+H+BB)

            I've already dropped Ron a note about converting this back to HR/F or HR/9 for next year.


            • #7
              Also, the threshold HR/BFP of 3.5% isn't particularly tight... its around 1.3 hr/9 or so.


              • #8
                Thanks. Yeah, using a filter not easily available in a core strategy is just a bad idea. If it was some article about a new thought or strategy, sure. Thanks for putting this in Ron's ear and perhaps more so for the usable formula.